The Beginning of the End of Cheap Oil?

A detailed article in the March 1998 issue of

Scientific American challenges conventional wisdom that world oil production will not peak until well into the 21st Century. Instead, claim co-authors Dr. Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère—both petroleum geologists who have worked in the oil industry for more than 40 years—world production of conventional crude oil will peak in less than ten years. Peak production of a resource occurs when about half of the resource has been consumed (see sidebar). Once production peaks, as occurred with oil in the U.S. around 1970, it will begin tapering off. Supplies will begin to tighten, and prices will climb. If petroleum prices are to begin a gradual price escalation within the next ten years (probably drawing natural gas prices up as well), then it makes a great deal of sense for those of us in the building industry to begin designing our buildings accordingly—significantly improving energy performance.